TIME Poll: Rudy By 14
According to the new TIME poll, Giuliani now leads his closest rival for the Republican nomination, Senator John McCain of Arizona, by 14 points (38% to 24%) among registered Republicans and those who are leaning toward the G.O.P. In January, a TIME poll showed McCain ahead by 4 points — a startling swing of 18 points. (For the entire results of the poll, go to www.srbi.com/time.poll/html.)
The core of Giuliani’s strength is in the Northeast, where he has a 50% to 23% advantage over McCain. But even in the West, he leads McCain by 5 points. The poll, conducted for Time by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas Public Affairs (SRBI), surveyed 1,144 registered voters by phone from Feb. 23-26. It has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.
Third among the Republicans in Time’s poll, with 12%, was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was at 7%. The rest of the Republican field polled in the very low single digits. If the G.O.P. field were limited to Giuliani, McCain and Romney, the former mayor would have a slightly more commanding lead, 49% to McCain’s 30%, with Romney at 12%.
So how about the general election matchup?
In a general election, the poll showed that a Clinton versus McCain contest would be a virtual dead heat, while she would lose to Giuliani by 3%. Obama, according to the poll, would beat McCain by 4 points; but would trail Giuliani by 5.
Let’s repeat one part of this poll again: Rudy, the Republican nominee, is strongest in the northeast. The Republican nominee. That, my friends, is huge…
Who was running best in early March 2002?
Sorry, 2003.
I assume you’re talking about the Democratic race that year, Fargus, so I decided to do some Googling. If your point is that Kerry was not the leader, you’re correct. Here’s what Quinnipiac reported:
But let’s look at March 1999. According to this poll, Bush was already the clear leader among Republicans with 52 percent to Elizabeth Dole’s 20 percent. Gore had 58 percent of Democrats, and Bradley had 21 percent.
So what do these results tell about nomination races at this stage of the game? It seems to me that if someone’s got a clear, solid lead, he or she is unlikely to lose, as we saw in the 2000 races. If no one’s got a clear lead, anyone can break out of the pack, as we saw in 2004.
Giuliani’s lead right now is somewhere in between those two models, which is why he can’t be considered inevitable, but neither can he be dismissed as a temporary blip. What has to be unnerving for the McCain campaign is the surging nature of Giuliani’s poll lead of late; it’s not inconceivable that he could develop one of those auras of inevitability if it continues, and then start collecting the money and endorsements that naturally follow.
Now it’s possible Giuliani could be heading toward a Dean-style flameout – just when he starts looking inevitable, voters pull back. But it’s worth recalling that Giuliani’s appeal so far has been personal – he’s the law ‘n’ order guy who stood tall on Sept. 11. Dean’s appeal had little to do with the man – no one knew who he was – so much as full-throated attack on President Bush and the war in Iraq. I suspect the lack of knowledge of who Dean was made it easier for him to be caricaturized and destroyed. I don’t think that will be likely to happen to Giuliani, who has a well-established political persona.
Here’s a video I’m pretty sure Rudy wish he hadn’t made….Presidential? Judge for yourself–
http://minor-ripper.blogspot.com/2007/02/video-rudy-giuliani-does-not-want-you.html
Oh, please…yes, he’s really scared of this coming out, that’s why he made it for a national television show.
For cryin’ out loud – how do I know Rudy’s about to win? Because people are throwing up any ol’ crap already, and hoping it sticks (and guess what? None of it is)…
Scandelous. Heaven forbid someone have some fun. If you want to believe this will bring down Rudy I saw bring it on. Hahahahahaha
I liked James Taranto’s take on that clip: Can you imagine any other candidate (except Hillary for obvious reasons) who is secure enough in his masculinity to do something like this?
I’m going with Rudy (I usually lean towards the democrats). This guy kicks some Hillary butt. What a waste for the democrats. LOL.. Thank the lord I never bet on a democrat winning the next election.
Interesting to track and watch, but it is SOOOOO early! We are about a year away from the first primary. Recall how strong Bush senior was against the field at this time in 1992, which was the actual election year.
We have a LOOOOOOOONG way to go.
BARACK OBAMA FOR 2008! I like his views