Informed Speculation

It looks like the Clinton-Obama matchup is all but a done deal; the New York Times covers both.  First, Adam Nagourney on how Barack Obama is shaking up the race:

Senator Barack Obama’s announcement that he might run for president is altering the early dynamics of the 2008 Democratic nominating contest. The move has created complications for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as she steps up her own preparations and is posing a threat to lesser-known Democrats trying to position themselves as alternatives to Mrs. Clinton, Democrats said Sunday.

The declaration six weeks ago by Mr. Obama, an Illinois Democrat, has set off a surge of interest in Democratic circles, which party officials expect will only be fueled in the coming week as Mr. Obama prepares for a day of campaignlike events in New Hampshire next Sunday.

At the least, Mr. Obama’s very high-profile explorations have contributed to a quickening of the pace across the 2008 Democratic field. On Sunday, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana said that he would create a presidential exploratory committee this week. And Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa went so far as to announce his candidacy two years before Election Day, in what his aides said was a calculated strategy to grab a moment of attention before Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton blot out the sun.

Patrick Healy covers the latest from the Clinton camp:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has begun a calculated series of meetings with top New York Democratic officials to signal that she is likely to run for the presidency in 2008 and to ask for their support if she does, according to one state Democratic official who spoke with her and two others who have been briefed on her plans.

Senator Clinton met last week with Charles B. Rangel, the dean of the New York Congressional delegation, in what her advisers said was an effort to meet with most New York Congressional Democrats by the end of this month to discuss her plans.

On Friday, she also spoke with Herman D. Farrell Jr., the chairman of the State Democratic Party, Mr. Farrell said, and she plans to meet with Governor-elect Eliot Spitzer as early as today. Mr. Farrell confirmed that Senator Clinton briefed him on her 2008 intentions; Mr. Rangel declined to describe their conversation.

Senator Clinton’s outreach was disclosed and confirmed yesterday by three New York Democratic officials, all on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized by the Clinton camp to release the information. One of the officials said he was contacted by Senator Clinton directly about her plans. The two others said they were informed by senior Clinton advisers that she was entering a new phase of contacting officials to line up support for a possible presidential bid.

Her maneuvering comes at a time of growing speculation about a hard-fought contest for the Democratic presidential nomination between her and another possible hopeful, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.

Mr. Obama’s political profile has been rising as an antiwar Democrat who proved wildly popular on the campaign trail, aiding candidates in the 2006 elections. With Mr. Obama scheduled this month to visit New Hampshire, the site of the first presidential primary, some Clinton allies see him as the single biggest obstacle to her nomination.

There has been little doubt that Senator Clinton was likely to mount a presidential bid. Her discussion marks a new phase of her exploration, as she seeks to build a united bench of Democratic support in her home state and then reach out for support nationally from elected officials, major donors and allies of both her and her husband, former President Bill Clinton.

Asked yesterday evening about Senator Clinton’s conversations with New York Democratic officials, a senior adviser, Howard Wolfson, said, “Senator Clinton made clear that after the election she would begin seriously considering a presidential run, and that process involves reaching out and talking to her colleagues.”

Another top adviser to Senator Clinton described the conversations with elected officials in exchange for anonymity because the adviser did not want to be quoted talking about internal deliberations.

“The message is, ‘Everybody keep their powder dry,’ ” the adviser said. “She is seriously looking at it. She’s not making any decision yet.”

The three Democratic officials said that Senator Clinton was strongly inclined to run for the presidency and was eager to do so, and that her outreach was an important new chapter that was likely to end with her declaration of a candidacy. The one Democrat who described his conversation with her said that Senator Clinton sounded enthusiastic and energized about undertaking a presidential campaign, and that she did not sound equivocal or unsure.

All three Democrats said the Clinton team was clearly moving ahead on a path to a candidacy; Senator Clinton was not seeking advice to make a decision on running, they said, but rather was lining up support so her candidacy was on the strongest possible footing.

Should make for a very intriguing – and historical – battle…