Informed Speculation

It may very well be, as this editorial in the Times of London suggests (I know, that’s the second link today to that paper), that we are unable and unwilling to do anything about a nuclear Iran:

George W Bush has huffed and puffed about using force to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Now he may have to learn to live with them. A meeting of senior US intelligence analysts last week was unanimous in concluding that little can be done to stop Iran under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, its volatile president, from acquiring the technology to develop the bomb. The United States lacks the intelligence for targeted airstrikes, partly because there are so many targets. Military action would also send global oil prices soaring and exacerbate America’s already intractable problems in Iraq. Mr Bush does not have to take the advice of his intelligence community, but after Iraq he would be wise to be wary.

In one sense this news is a relief because it appears to rule out the immediate prospect of further conflict. But in the longer term it will change for ever the balance of power in the Middle East. A country whose president has said that he wants Israel “wiped off the map” is not a secure home for weapons that enable him to do precisely that. The region is volatile enough without adding highly enriched uranium to the mix. If the West cannot prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons through a skilful containment strategy it seems highly likely that other countries in the region will join the arms race. Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will be tempted to get the bomb.

If so, the question is: why, if we knew this to be the case, did we destroy our credibility, already harmed by the WMD fiasco, with the ‘international community’ by laying down ultimatums we had no intention of enforcing?

I am not convinced we have done all we can to stop a nuclear Iran…not by a long shot.  I am disgusted that the chattering classes sink into tabloid land over ultimately personal matters such as Mark Foley when we have the very real prospect of a true international disaster looming over us all. 

For if there’s one thing you can bank on, it’s this…if the Middle East becomes ‘proliferated’ with nukes, there WILL be a nuclear attack on Western interests.  It’s not a matter of ‘if’, but ‘when’…