The Spring of Our Discontent
One thing is unmistakably clear to partisans on both sides of the political divide: voter dissatisfaction is broad and deep. We’re all aware of Bush’s job approval woes, but the Congress, remarkably, is even less popular:
Public approval of the job Congress is doing has dipped to its lowest level of 2006, and is now the worst Gallup has recorded since the closing days of the Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994.
According to an April 10-13, 2006, Gallup Poll, 23% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, while 70% disapprove. The current approval score is slightly below the 25%-27% range seen since January.
The current 23% approval rating for Congress is a near-record low for the institution. Gallup’s trend for this question, which started in 1974, shows lower approval scores on only three other occasions: October 1994 (21%), March 1992 (18%), and June 1979 (19%).
I’ve read the Jay Cost pieces and others like them that say the Republicans have inherent structural advantages that will protect them from some of the fallout; I’ve also seen plenty of pieces saying the Republicans are in deep trouble (see Jim Geraghty and georgia10 for recent vintage pieces of both persuasions).
The completely unscientific method of tea-reading, however, tells me that we had better motivate ourselves, quickly…it would seem to this observer that only a heavier-than-expected Republican voter turnout will stem what is increasingly looking like an echo of 1994. Another missing element that might yet save us: there is no Democrat (yet) who has taken on the role of Gingrinch in formulating a decent argument that things would be appreciably (or any) better under the Democrats…
My instinct is similar to yours, Mark, and I’m also not sure it would be the worst thing in the world. It might force Republicans to think about spending cuts again, and it would force Democrats to cut off some of Angry Left rhetoric and be a bit more serious (I hope).
But I was surprised by the result in the race for Duke Cunningham’s seat, and perhaps even more surprised by Markos “moral victories” Zuniga’s pessimism after that race. I guess the big question is whether the disgust with Congress leads to a throw-out-the-rascals moment or a case of voters of all stripes throwing up their hands in the air in disgust. If it’s the latter, and the Cunningham race implied, Republicans just may hang on, though it’s a victory they should take no solace in. The ideological divisions on the left may make it hard for Democrats to present the kind of united front that could turn that voter disgust into a throw-out-the-rascals election.
Hi Mark and Dennis,
I think Barone [earlier post and link] has it right. Most Republican voters are very tired of the Republicans in Congress. Opinion polls may accurately measure the disgust of Republican voters now, but these opinion polls can’t measure expected results of an election in November because most Republican voters should still vote against the Democrat challengers and most Democrat voters should still vote against the Republican challengers.
Some voters will stay home and some voters will switch, but in contested districts, most voters will still vote for the same party they have been voting for since 1994. There are no positions that either party has taken to change the dynamics.
A strong position on immigration would change the dynamics, but which party is willing to take the risk?